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Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us by David Lockwood (English)
US $26.62
Approximately£20.05
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Item specifics
- Condition
- ISBN-13
- 9781626348806
- Type
- NA
- Publication Name
- NA
- ISBN
- 9781626348806
About this product
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN-10
1626348804
ISBN-13
9781626348806
eBay Product ID (ePID)
9050387690
Product Key Features
Book Title
Fooled by the Winners : How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
Number of Pages
296 Pages
Language
English
Topic
Game Theory, General, Research, Sociology / Social Theory
Publication Year
2021
Genre
Mathematics, Social Science
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
Item Length
9 in
Item Width
6 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Trade
Synopsis
Survivor bias is found in a wide range of fields, lurking quietly within the data, hiding beneath the surface of the numbers, patiently waiting to deceive us. During WWII, military analyses thought that the bullet-riddled areas of Allied planes indicated sections requiring additional armor-plating. But the mathematician Abraham Wald recommended additional armor be placed in the areas that were not riddled with bullets. Wald realized that the planes that did not return to base were the ones struck by enemy fighters in the unscathed parts of the surviving planes. This insight became critical to military aircraft design and would save the lives of uncounted airmen over the skies of Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. A small group of hedge fund managers have become celebrities and joined the ranks of the world's richest people. These individuals are paid millions and, in some cases, billions of dollars annually as compensation for their supposed superior stock-picking skills. But a substantially larger group of hedge fund managers are no longer in business due to lousy returns and are excluded from the indexes that track hedge fund performance. If the returns of the failed managers are included, hedge funds as an asset class consistently underperform the market averages. As a result, we pay fat fees for slim returns. Drug companies fund a large portion of clinical trials and rarely allow negative outcomes to be publicly disclosed. Hence, medical journals are filled with positive outcomes and infrequently report on the many more studies that demonstrate the medicines are ineffective. As a consequence, we spend money on health care that doesn't make us healthier. Weight loss companies offer proof that we can "lose 10 pounds in 10 days" with before and after pictures. But the slimmed down individuals appearing in these TV ads are the few that lost weight amongst the hundreds that did not. Instead of following clinically tested medical practices, we suffer through heavily promoted diet schemes that don't shed unwanted pounds. Survivor bias often deceives us. This book shows how to correct for survivor bias, so you will never again be fooled by the winners. Book jacket., Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn't make us healthier, for diets that don't make us slimmer, and for advice books that don't offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias--the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won't find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples--minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.
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- y***0 (345)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseA+++++++seller they gave me a great price and shipped it out immediately and communicated friendly. Shipping was fast and when it arrived it was packaged thoughtfully. The book is brand new and exactly as described. I have come to exect high quality books from them as they are always brand new. I definitely recommend this seller to anyone who wants beautiful books at a great price. Thank you for a great transaction.
- l***r (978)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseA Plus Seller: Transaction Good. Tested Good. Packaged Good. Better than described. Shipping reasonable time. Value contents of book: A Plus. True Life story. From one Autistic person to an other. Right on the money. Jesus Does Talk to People today. Are you listening with a Facilitator and the Spirit guiding, leading, asking Questions? I would not have believed it, until I read it. I have seen it in action. Life Change! Extremely Valuable.
- t***u (125)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseThe book was in excellent condition, quality and appearance excellent as described, and packaged safely in a box very well. Seller shipped immediately and communication and payment transfer was excellent. Great eBayer!!! Price of book was very competitive. A+++++Seed to Harvest by Octavia E. Butler (English) Paperback Book (#396114881909)
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Seller Feedback (1,050,996)
- y***0 (345)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseA+++++++seller they gave me a great price and shipped it out immediately and communicated friendly. Shipping was fast and when it arrived it was packaged thoughtfully. The book is brand new and exactly as described. I have come to exect high quality books from them as they are always brand new. I definitely recommend this seller to anyone who wants beautiful books at a great price. Thank you for a great transaction.
- l***r (978)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseA Plus Seller: Transaction Good. Tested Good. Packaged Good. Better than described. Shipping reasonable time. Value contents of book: A Plus. True Life story. From one Autistic person to an other. Right on the money. Jesus Does Talk to People today. Are you listening with a Facilitator and the Spirit guiding, leading, asking Questions? I would not have believed it, until I read it. I have seen it in action. Life Change! Extremely Valuable.
- t***u (125)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseThe book was in excellent condition, quality and appearance excellent as described, and packaged safely in a box very well. Seller shipped immediately and communication and payment transfer was excellent. Great eBayer!!! Price of book was very competitive. A+++++Seed to Harvest by Octavia E. Butler (English) Paperback Book (#396114881909)